Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence and discretion

We decompose fiscal policy in three components: i) responsiveness, ii) persistence and iii) discretion. Using a sample of 132 countries, our results point out that fiscal policy tends to be more persistent than to respond to output conditions. We also found that while the effect of cross-country covariates is positive (negative) for discretion, it is negative (positive) for persistence thereby suggesting that countries with higher persistence have lower discretion and vice versa. In particular, while government size, country size and income have negative effects on the discretion component of fiscal policy, they tend to increase fiscal policy persistence. JEL Classification: E62, H50Fiscal Policy, Fiscal Volatility

Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether fiscal policies can alleviate the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and if they should be coordinated internationally. The analysis is carried out using EAGLE, a DSGE model of the global economy. We consider that the fiscal shocks are temporary and that fiscal policy retains full credibility at all times. In this setup we find significant non-linearities in a ZLB situation that amplify the effects of fiscal shocks compared to the non-ZLB case. International coordination is helpful but does not play a major role in the results. JEL Classification: E40, E62, E63, F42DSGE Models, Fiscal Moultipliers, monetary policy, zero lower bound

Intergenerational altruism and neoclassical growth models

This paper surveys intergenerational altruism in neoclassical growth models. It first examines Barro's approach to intergenerational altruism, whereby successive generations are linked by recursive altruistic preferences. Individuals have an altruistic concern only for their children, who in turn also have altruistic feelings for their own children. The conditions under which the Ricardian equivalence (debt neutrality) theorem applies are specified. The effectiveness of fiscal policy is further analysed in the context of an economy populated by heterogeneous families differing with respect to their degree of intergenerational altruism. Other forms of altruism, referred to as ad hoc altruism, are also examined, along with their implications for fiscal policy. JEL Classification: E13, D64, E62, C60altruism, fiscal policy, Neoclassical general aggregative models

Monetary conservatism and fiscal policy

Does an inflation conservative central bank à la Rogoff (1985) remain desirable in a setting with endogenous fiscal policy? To provide an answer we study monetary and fiscal policy games without commitment in a dynamic stochastic sticky price economy with monopolistic distortions. Monetary policy determines nominal interest rates and fiscal policy provides public goods generating private utility. We find that lack of fiscal commitment gives rise to excessive public spending. The optimal inflation rate internalizing this distortion is positive, but lack of monetary commitment robustly generates too much inflation. A conservative monetary authority thus remains desirable. Exclusive focus on inflation by the central bank recoups large part - in some cases all - of the steady state welfare losses associated with lack of monetary and fiscal commitment. An inflation conservative central bank tends to improve also the conduct of stabilization policy. JEL Classification: E52, E62, E63conservative monetary policy, discretionary policy, sequential non-cooperative policy games, time consistent policy

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union

So far, the 'new open economy macroeconomics' literature has primarly focused on monetary policy and monetary policy rules, rather than paying attention also to fiscal policy. This is an omission because, especially with the advent of EMU, the burden on fiscal policy as an instrument for macroeconomic stabilization has potentially increased. In this paper, we focus on the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in a micro-founded model of a monetary union. By extending a two-country, New Keynesian model with public spending, we find that the forward-looking Phillips curves depend on consumption, terms-of-trade and public spending deviations from their respective stochastic natural settings. We study the optimal coordinated monetary and fiscal policy settings for variuos settings. We also consider simple monetary and fiscal policy rules and investigate to what extent these rules can approximate the optimal solution under commitment. JEL Classification: E52, E61, E62, E63, F33monetary policy rules, Policy mix

Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous growth coming from human capital formation through educational spending. We assess how budgetary imbalances affect economic dynamics and the outlook for economic growth, thereby providing a rationale for fiscal rules ensuring sustainability. Our results show that the appropriate response of fiscal policy to temporary shocks is not trivial in the absence of fiscal rules. Fiscal rules allow for a timely reaction, thereby avoiding possibly disruptive fiscal adjustment in the future: the more adjustment is delayed, the larger is its necessary scale. We perform a rough calibration of the model to simulate the effects of a demographic shock (change in the population growth rate) under different fiscal policy scenarios. JEL Classification: E62, H63, H55, O41, E17Fiscal sustainability, overlapping generations, public debt

Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use Logit models for the period 1991–2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful. JEL Classification: C25, E62, H62central and eastern Europe, fiscal episodes, Fiscal Policy, Logit models

The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach

This paper estimates the effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Spain in a VAR framework. Government expenditure expansionary shocks are found to have positive effects on output in the short-term at the cost of higher inflation and public deficits and lower output in the medium and long term. Tax increases are found to drag economic activity in the medium term while entailing an only temporary improvement of the public budget balance. The application of these results to the analysis of fiscal policy in Spain since the mid-nineties points to the conclusion that the consolidation process does not seem to have involved costs in terms of output growth. Moreover, the stance of fiscal policy has become more counter-cyclical in that period. JEL Classification: E62, H30Fiscal multipliers, Fiscal shocks, VAR

Government spending volatility and the size of nations

This paper provides empirical evidence showing that smaller countries tend to have more volatile government spending for a sample of 160 countries from 1960 to 2000. We argue that the larger size of a country decreases the volatility of government spending because it acts as an insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, and it leads to increasing returns to scale due to the higher ability of the government to spread its cost of financing over a larger pool of taxpayers. The results are robust to different time and country samples, different econometric techniques and to several sets of control variables. The analysis also evinces that country size is negatively related to the discretionary part of government spending and to the volatilities of most of the government spending items. JEL Classification: E62, H10Country Size, Fiscal Policy, fiscal volatility, government size, H10, JEL: E62

Public debt in an OLG model with imperfect competition

Fiscal policy is needed to avoid dynamic inefficiency and maintain full employment in a modified Diamond OLG model with imperfect competition. A distributionally neutral tax scheme can maintain full employment in the face of variations in .household confidence.. No variations in taxes will be needed if households correctly anticipate future taxes: the tax policy functions as an insurance scheme. JEL Categories: E62, E22Public debt, Keynesian OLG model, dynamic effeciency, confidence.